In early 2023, former Eskom CEO Andre de Ruyter made a bold statement: if the lights are on, it’s because Eskom is burning diesel at a rate of knots. At the time, his words were met with skepticism. Fast forward to April 2025—and his warning has come to pass.
Load-Shedding Suspended… But at What Cost?
On Friday, 11 April 2025, Eskom proudly announced that load-shedding had been suspended and that the power system remained stable. They pointed to strategic use of emergency reserves and a high level of planned maintenance aimed at preparing the grid for the coming winter demand.
But a closer look at Eskom’s latest operational data paints a less reassuring picture.
Energy Availability Factor Falls Short
Between 1 and 10 April 2025, Eskom’s year-to-date Energy Availability Factor (EAF)—a key measure of how often power stations are available when needed—stood at just 56.11%. This is significantly lower than the promised 70% EAF by the end of March 2025, a critical target Eskom had set to eliminate load-shedding.
This shortfall is attributed to increased planned maintenance, but it also highlights the failure of Eskom’s ambitious two-year recovery plan, which aimed for a stepwise increase in performance: 60% by March 2023, 65% by March 2024, and 70% by March 2025.
A Billion Rand Diesel Bill
The gap between energy supply and demand is being bridged by an expensive and unsustainable crutch—diesel. From 1 to 10 April alone, Eskom spent R1.34 billion on fuel for its Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs), generating 228.33GWh of power—more than triple what was generated via diesel during the same period last year.
Over the past 30 days, the diesel bill has ballooned to R3.6 billion, signaling an alarming reliance on emergency power.
This isn’t just a spike. Year-on-year data from 2021 to 2025 reveals a sharp upward trend in Eskom’s average daily diesel usage—from 118 MWh in 2021 to 518 MWh in 2025. De Ruyter’s claim is no longer theoretical. It’s reality.
Winter Warnings from Energy Experts
With Eskom missing its EAF target and diesel use surging, energy experts are sounding the alarm.
Both Chris Yelland and Anton Eberhard warn that South Africans should brace for load-shedding this winter. Eberhard noted that emergency diesel-fired stations have been pushed to their limits, while Eskom’s EAF continues to hover dangerously between 55% and 58%.
Yelland added, “If this trend continues and the EAF does not significantly increase as colder weather sets in, we will likely experience load-shedding.”
Where Does This Leave South Africans?
Despite official optimism and suspended load-shedding—for now—South Africa’s power stability rests on shaky ground. The overuse of diesel is neither affordable nor sustainable. And with winter approaching, Eskom’s failure to hit its performance benchmarks could soon plunge the country back into darkness.
The real question now isn’t whether De Ruyter was right—but how long Eskom can keep the lights on without burning through billions.
Source: https://businesstech.co.za/news/energy/820890/andre-de-ruyters-comment-about-eskom-becoming-true/
Source: https://businesstech.co.za/news/energy/820890/andre-de-ruyters-comment-about-eskom-becoming-true/
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